'No Cold War should be reignited and no Ukraine-style crisis should be repeated in Asia'
The World Bank has retained India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal at 8.3 per cent as the recovery is yet to become broad-based. As per the first advanced estimates of the national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) last week, the economy is projected to grow at 9.2 per cent in 2021-22, surpassing pre-COVID level in actual terms, mainly on account of improved performance, especially in farm, mining and manufacturing sectors. "India's economy is expected to expand by 8.3 per cent in fiscal year 2021/22 (ending March 2022), unchanged from last June's forecast as the recovery is yet to become broad-based.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday kept its forecast for India's economic growth unchanged at 6 per cent in the fiscal year starting April 1, before rising to 6.9 per cent in the following year. In the quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific, S&P saw inflation rate easing to 5 per cent in 2023-24 fiscal, from 6.8 per cent in the current financial year. It saw India's gross domestic product (GDP) likely growing by 7 per cent in the current financial year ending March 31 (2022-23), before slowing to 6 per cent in the next 2023-24 fiscal.
Among the main gainers were Jio Financial Services which jumped 4.99 per cent, Tata Steel (2.09 per cent), Maruti Suzuki (1.87 per cent), M&M (1.31 per cent) and Infosys (1.19 per cent).
The country's new economic roadmap highlights the importance of creating a virtuous cycle of investment, savings and exports in order to sustain rapid economic growth over the next five years.
The Finance Ministry expects GDP growth to be 8-8.5 per cent in 2015-16.
Shares of real estate firms have been outperforming over the past year. The rally, analysts say, may hit roadblocks in the near term amid stretched valuations, even as the long-term prospects for the sector remain ebullient. "Most of the positive news flow is already in the price. Hence, investors sitting on hefty profits may partially cash out at current levels," suggests V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
India, Asia's third-largest economy, is likely to grow 5.3 per cent in 2013, the OECD said, lower than the November forecast of 5.9 per cent.
'Indian equity valuations, although not very expensive, are not cheap either.'
Stating that an economic recession gripped global economy following the lockdowns due to COVID-19 pandemic, Fitch Ratings on Friday said the initial disruptions to regional manufacturing supply chains in China have now broadened to include local discretionary spending and exports.
The biggest risk to India's growth outlook is an escalation of geopolitical tensions, especially if these tensions spread to the Asian region, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Wednesday. Varma, in an interview to PTI, said that inflation and inflationary expectations appear to be moderating and high inflation will certainly not become the 'norm' in the country. He is cautiously optimistic about the Indian economy as after the pandemic abated, consumption demand has begun to recover though the recovery is uneven across sectors and industries.
Supported by slightly stronger global growth, improving export competitiveness and implementation of recently approved investment projects, India's growth is expected to recover from 4.4 per cent in 2013 to 5.4 per cent in 2014, the IMF said.
A new era of Indian equity market outperformance compared to China "appears to be dawning", according to Morgan Stanley. The firm has upgraded India to overweight in its Asia Pacific-excluding Japan (APxJ) list, making it their most preferred market not only in the region but also in the global emerging market (GEM) pack. India now holds the top position in this category, with an overweight of 75 basis points, a significant increase from nil previously.
This is a good opportunity for long-term investors to pick quality small and midcap stocks at reasonable valuations.
Had India agreed to join the trade pact, Indian markets would have been flooded with cheap Chinese products.
The 2.1 percentage point reduction mainly reflects the impact of recent fluctuations in US dollar exchange rates.
India will also play an increasingly important role as one of the Asia-Pacific region's major economic growth engines, helping to drive Asian regional trade and investment flows.
Indians are at the top spot for international investment, both in terms of the number of investors and the amount of expenditure
Most analysts had predicted a decline in real estate fixed asset investment.
Asian Development Bank on Wednesday lowered India's economic growth forecast for FY2019 to 5.1 per cent on slowing job prospects, rural distress exacerbated by poor harvest and credit crunch. Growth in FY2020 is likely to recover thanks to this support, low oil prices, and a weakening rupee, but risks to the projections remain tilted to the downside, it said on India.
Also, the monsoon this year may end up being the driest since 2015, which recorded a rainfall deficit of 13 per cent, they said.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
Growth in emerging market and developing economies will slow to 4.4 per cent in 2014, before rising to 5.0 per cent in 2015, it said.
National Security Advisor Ajit Doval on Wednesday called on Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and CEO Abdullah Abdullah in Kabul and reaffirmed India's commitment to assist Afghanistan in building a strong, democratic and prosperous country.
India's historical focus on its continental borders has overshadowed its maritime ambitions, but that is changing quickly, notes Ajai Shukla.
Jaishankar said the world has experienced its consequences in terms of higher costs and shortages of foodgrains and fertilizers and fuel.
Government's focus on infrastructure is the biggest positive for the Indian economy, followed by the improvement in tax collections and good consumption recovery.
'Bihar, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Bengal can be the game changers of 2024.'
'But unlike Bond who killed an individual, Israel is killing a nation.'
'China's economy continues to slow and the US Fed may still hike rates before the end of the year.'
Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Defence Minister Peter Dutton from the Australian side will meet with External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh.
'While the country has been hit hard from a strong second wave of Covid, we believe the markets are willing to look through that.'
With its political colour dominated by less than democratic trends, BRICS currently leaves some of us wondering -- where in this grouping is there an assurance that human freedom will be respected unconditionally? It would be nice to see the new members of BRICS drawn from the ranks of countries wedded to preserving and guarding human freedom, observes Shyam G Menon.
The world today sees them (Pakistan) as the epicentre of terrorism, Jaishankar said.
The government's Rs 20.97 lakh crore COVID-19 package lacks in addressing the immediate concerns of the economy as the actual fiscal impact of the additional stimulus is only about 1 per cent of the GDP as opposed to the claim of 10 per cent, Fitch Solutions said on Tuesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 12 announced a stimulus package of Rs 20 lakh crore, or nearly 10 per cent of GDP, to deal with the economic fallout of COVID-19. The contents of the package were broad-based and announced in five tranches.
Sharma proposes to pass on the 'handover note' to his successor, which as per the poll projections is likely to be from Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance.
Prime Minister Modi, who is in Japan on a two-day visit to attend a summit of the Quad leaders at the invitation of his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida, penned an op-ed on the vibrant relations between India and Japan in the Yomiuri Shimbun.
Historically, tensions in West Asian regions have provided support to gold prices.
What's different this time is that global financial stress -- which has its genesis in four policy choices made in recent years -- is juxtaposed with a more resilient real economy, observes Sajjid Z Chinoy, chief India economist at J P Morgan.
'It will be best for investors to have a systematic investment plan in mid-cap and small-cap funds with a three-/five-year horizon.'
